1 月 2 日，在雅加达的一个市场上，一位小贩正在等待顾客

雅加达（路透社）——印尼统计局周一公布的数据显示，印尼 3 月份的年度通胀率降至七个月以来的最低水平，因为在穆斯林斋戒月伊始，物价涨幅低于往常。

3 月份年通胀率为 4.97%，为 2022 年 8 月以来最低，低于上月的 5.47%。路透社的一项民意调查此前预计 3 月份的增长率为 5.2%。

年度核心通胀率也低于市场预期，为 2.94%，而民意调查为 3.05%。4 月份的利率为 3.09%。

这个穆斯林占多数的国家的通货膨胀率通常在今年 3 月下旬开始的斋月期间上升，并导致开斋节庆祝活动。

统计局指出，今年的价格压力低于近年来的水平，不包括大流行的初期。

“（大流行之后）消费模式并未 100% 恢复正常。这意味着需求不高，”该局副局长 Pudji Ismartini 说。

由于全球食品和能源价格高企，自去年年中以来，东南亚最大经济体的通胀率一直高于央行 2% 至 4% 的目标区间。

印尼央行官员曾表示，基于基数效应以及央行在 8 月至 1 月期间将利率上调 225 个基点之后，通胀可能会在 9 月回到目标范围。政府在 2022 年 9 月提高了燃油价格。

Maybank Indonesia 经济学家 Myrdal Gunarto 表示，3 月份的通胀率“出乎意料，非常低”，表明官员们成功地控制了价格压力，预计到 2023 年底，年度通胀率将进一步放缓至 3.2% 至 3.4%。

星展银行经济学家 Radhika Rao 表示，通胀数据证实了 BI 的观点，即通胀压力正在消散。

“政策利率将长期停顿，混合的美元基调也有助于抑制货币的波动，”她说。


 

JAKARTA (Reuters) -- Indonesia's annual inflation cooled to its lowest rate in seven months in March, data from the statistics bureau showed on Monday, as prices rose slower than usual during the beginning of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan.

March's annual inflation rate was 4.97%, the lowest since August 2022, and down from 5.47% in the previous month. A Reuters poll had expected a March rate of 5.2%.

The annual core inflation rate also came in below market expectation, at 2.94% versus the poll's 3.05%. The April rate was 3.09%.

Inflation in the Muslim-majority country typically rises during Ramadan, which this year started in late March, and leading up to the Eid al-Fitr celebrations.

The statistics bureau noted that this year's price pressures were below those seen in recent years, excluding the early years of the pandemic.

"Consumption patterns have not returned 100% to normal [after the pandemic]. This means demand was not high," said Pudji Ismartini, deputy head of the bureau.

Inflation in Southeast Asia's largest economy has stayed above the central bank's target range of 2% to 4% since the middle of last year amid high global food and energy prices.

Bank Indonesia officials have said inflation would likely return to its target range in September on base effects and after the central bank raised rates by 225 basis points between August to January. The government had raised fuel prices in September 2022.

Maybank Indonesia economist Myrdal Gunarto said the "unexpectedly, very low" March inflation showed officials were successful in controlling price pressures, predicting annual inflation would slow further to 3.2% to 3.4% by the end of 2023.

Radhika Rao, a DBS economist, said the inflation figures validated BI's view that inflationary pressures were dissipating.

"Policy rates are in for an extended pause, with the mixed dollar tone also helping to contain volatility in the currency," she said.